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August Division Winner Value Board - August 5th update
The trade deadline is behind us, the first week of August is in the books, and it's time for our first update to the August Division Winner Value Board. Using updated post-trade deadline team ratings and actual results through all games completed through August 4, we've rerun the remainder of the month 2,000 times and compared every team's probability of posting the best August record in its division against the current DraftKings market. This update includes every team's August record, Basewinner probability, fair odds and current market price, along with our **Best Value** and **BW Fade** in all six divisions. A few early results have already shifted the landscape—including a three-way dead heat in the AL East, the Phillies strengthening their grip on the NL East, and the Dodgers remaining the NL West favorite despite an 0-4 start. As always, the goal isn't to chase the teams with the best first week of August—it's to identify where the betting market and our simulations disagree.
August Most Wins Market: Post-Trade-Deadline Update
This is the update I've been looking forward to since launching the August simulations. With the trade deadline behind us, the Basewinner engine now begins with each team's actual August record, rebuilds every club's component ratings using the new rosters, and simulates the remaining August schedule 2,000 times. Those projected wins are then combined with the month-to-date results to produce updated probabilities for finishing with the most wins in August. It's a dynamic forecast that becomes more informative every day the season moves forward.
August Division Winner Value Board
Throughout July, we went all in on Monte Carlo simulations for the Most Regular Season Wins market. As that project evolved, I kept coming back to another market DraftKings had posted: Monthly Division Winners. Rather than simply extrapolating from the overall monthly win probabilities, I rebuilt the Basewinner component ratings and ran a brand-new set of 2,000 simulations specifically for the division markets. The results uncovered several intriguing values heading into the trade deadline—and reinforced why every betting question deserves its own simulation.
August Most Wins Market: Opening Card
August is one of the most fascinating months to model because it's the only month where the trade deadline can dramatically reshape the landscape overnight. Before the deadline arrives, I rebuilt the Basewinner component ratings, simulated the entire August schedule 2,000 times, and compared those probabilities against the opening market at Caesars Sportsbook. The result is an Opening Card featuring a Basewinner Star, a Value play, a Watch List team, a Bomb, and a Fade—with a full post-deadline update coming as soon as the new rosters are in place.
July Most Wins Market: July 21 Update
With just over a week remaining in July, the race for the month's most wins has narrowed considerably. The Red Sox have taken command, winning the simulation nearly three out of every four times, but that doesn't necessarily make them the best bet. After updating the July standings and running another 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, I take a fresh look at where the market still offers value—and where it may have overreacted.
The 2026 Basewinner First Team: Starting Pitchers
Yesterday we unveiled the 2026 Basewinner First Team: Offense. Today, we hand the ball to the pitchers. Using our proprietary Starting Pitching Rating (ML), we've ranked every current five-man rotation in baseball, identified this year's biggest Basewinner Sabermetric Underperformers and Overperformers, and highlighted the starting staffs our model believes are best positioned for the second half of the season. Some of the names mirror the ERA leaderboard. Others... not so much.
July Most Wins Market Update: All-Star Break Edition
The All-Star break provides the perfect checkpoint for one of my favorite MLB futures markets. After updating July records through July 13, refreshing the Basewinner team ratings, and re-running 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, the market has shifted dramatically. Boston has earned favorite status, but a few clubs are still offering prices that don't match their true probability.
The 2026 Basewinner First Team: Offense
The inaugural **Basewinner First Team: Offense** is here. Built using **BW Runs v2**, Basewinner's proprietary offensive rating, these lineups identify the top offensive performers in baseball using strikeout rate, isolated power and park-adjusted performance—not popularity or traditional counting stats. There are plenty of familiar stars, a few names that may surprise you, and one player who proves that sometimes... **Romy is my Homie.** 🐶 **Doghouse Rating:** 🦴🦴🦴🦴🦴
2026 Home Run Derby: A Statcast Approach to Finding Betting Value
Every July I tackle a fun little research project: **If the Home Run Derby isn't played like a normal baseball game, why would I handicap it like one?** This year's version uses three years of Statcast data against offspeed pitches, focusing on HR per Ball in Play (HR/BIP) and Launch Speed to build a three-player Dutch betting portfolio. Since 2019, that portfolio has included the eventual Derby champion in **five of the last six years**. Here's a look at this year's research—and where it led.
July Most Wins Market: July 7 Update
One week into July, the Most Wins market has already started to shift. Using current July records, updated Basewinner team ratings, the remaining schedule, and 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, I re-estimated each team’s true probability today of finishing the month with the most wins. The Dodgers remain the team to beat, but several value plays and longshot bombs have emerged.
July's Most Wins Market: Opening Line
Using Basewinner's proprietary team ratings for starting pitching, bullpen, offense, and defense, we simulated the remainder of July 2,000 times to estimate each team's true probability of finishing the month with the most wins. The result is a set of fair odds that can be compared directly to the betting market, helping identify where the price is right.
🏆 BaseWinner Breakdown: Dodgers vs Blue Jays — Lineups vs LHP
vs LHP: BaseWinner vs LHP: Dodgers vs Blue Jays through BB/K, ISO, and BWR. See which hitters pop against southpaws and who struggles.
🏆 BaseWinner Breakdown: Dodgers vs Blue Jays — Lineups vs RHP
BaseWinner Offensive numbers vs RHP: Dodgers vs Blue Jays with BB/K discipline, ISO power, and BaseWinner Runs Created (BWR). Top 3 and Bottom 3 highlights across both lineups.
World Series Watch: Dodgers Surge, Mariners Stumble, Jays Hold Steady
Fresh Monte Carlo results show the Dodgers dominating, Toronto thriving on zone discipline and Springer’s #6 BW Offense rank vs RHP, and Seattle trying to rebound after a 2-0 collapse. LCS/World Series probabilities, DraftKings edges.
LDS Update: Jays in Control, Mariners on the Move, Brewers Grinding, Dodgers Pricey
The 2025 MLB Division Series just got spicy. The BaseWinner Monte Carlo sims show the Blue Jays crushing behind “Savage” Yesavage’s no-hit heater, the Mariners still a live dog on the road, and the Brewers quietly grinding. The Dodgers? Still elite, still overpriced. Full LDS projections, DraftKings value gaps, and a 2-verse BaseWinner rap you didn’t know you needed.
BaseWinner LDS Preview — Matchups, Metrics & Market Edges
The Division Series is here and the BaseWinner model is fired up. I ran 1,000 playoff sims, folded in fresh baserunning numbers, and lined them up against DraftKings futures. The Mariners pop as the biggest edge, the Dodgers and Phillies look overpriced, and we’ve even got a Blue Jays day-game nugget you don’t want to miss. Plus, a 3-verse rap to close it out — October style.
2025 MLB Playoffs: World Series Futures, Power Ratings, and the BaseWinner Process
The 2025 MLB playoffs are here, and I’ve run 10,000 Monte Carlo sims to project World Series odds. With Wild Card–specific rotation ratings and a Dodgers lineup bump, the model points to value on the Mariners, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Cubs. Full power ratings, fair odds vs. DraftKings, and chart inside — plus catch my daily playoff breakdowns on the BetUS MLB Show, live 8 AM ET on YouTube.
2025 NL West Betting Preview: Diamondbacks Poised to Challenge Dodgers
Looking for an edge in your MLB betting this season? Our comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations (5,000 season runs) have uncovered significant value in the NL West that the market appears to be undervaluing. Let's dive into the advanced baseball metrics and modeling insights driving our best bets for the 2025 season.