July Most Wins Market: July 21 Update
July Most Wins Market: July 21 Update
Blurb
With just over a week remaining in July, the race for the month's most wins has narrowed considerably. The Red Sox have taken command, winning the simulation nearly three out of every four times, but that doesn't necessarily make them the best bet. After updating the July standings and running another 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, I take a fresh look at where the market still offers value—and where it may have overreacted.
Three weeks ago, this market was wide open.
At the All-Star break, several teams still had a realistic path to finishing July with the most wins.
Now, with just over a week remaining, the picture has become much clearer.
After updating the July standings through July 21, refreshing the Basewinner Team Ratings, and running another 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, one thing stands above everything else:
The Red Sox have earned favorite status.
The question now isn't who's most likely to win.
The question is whether the betting market has priced Boston too aggressively.
Updated Value Board
| Team | July Record | Win Probability | Basewinner Fair Odds | Market Odds | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 14-1 | 74.20% | -288 | -575 | ❌ Too Expensive |
| Baltimore Orioles | 10-4 | 13.40% | +646 | +3000 | ⭐ Best Value |
| Detroit Tigers | 10-4 | 5.95% | +1581 | +2000 | ✅ Value |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 11-6 | 2.45% | +3982 | +750 | 🚫 Biggest Fade |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 9-6 | 0.75% | +13233 | +5000 | Pass |
| Cleveland Guardians | 9-6 | 0.55% | +18082 | +5000 | Pass |
Boston Has Taken Control
There's no denying what Boston has accomplished.
A 14-1 start to July has vaulted the Red Sox into a commanding position, and my simulations now give them a 74.2% chance of finishing the month with the most wins.
Simply put, they're the most likely winner by a wide margin.
But betting isn't about picking the most likely outcome—it's about deciding whether the price accurately reflects that probability.
My simulations make Boston approximately -288.
Sportsbooks are asking bettors to lay -575.
That's a significant difference.
The Red Sox deserve to be favorites. I just don't believe they offer value at the current price.
Baltimore Is Still the Best Bet
If there's one team that continues to jump off the page, it's Baltimore.
The Orioles are quietly putting together an outstanding July, sitting at 10-4, and the simulations still give them a 13.4% chance of finishing the month on top.
That equates to fair odds of roughly +646.
The market, however, is still offering +3000.
At this stage of the month, that's the largest overlay on the board.
Baltimore doesn't need Boston to collapse—they simply need an opportunity. If the Red Sox cool off over the final week, the Orioles are in the best position to capitalize.
Detroit Still Offers Some Value
Detroit has matched Baltimore's 10-4 record, but their remaining schedule leaves them with a smaller path to the top.
Even so, my fair price of +1581 still comes in shorter than the market's +2000.
It's not the edge Baltimore provides, but it's one of the few remaining positive expected-value opportunities.
The Biggest Disagreement
No team illustrates the difference between record and probability better than Milwaukee.
On the surface, an 11-6 July looks impressive.
The market certainly thinks so, pricing the Brewers at just +750.
The simulations tell a different story.
After accounting for Boston's commanding lead and the remaining schedule, Milwaukee wins the month only 2.45% of the time, implying fair odds of nearly +4000.
It's the largest disagreement between my model and the betting market.
Final Thoughts
One of the things I've enjoyed most about tracking this market is watching the probabilities evolve throughout the month.
Early in July, there were several attractive longshots.
At the All-Star break, multiple teams still carried meaningful value.
Now the market has become much more efficient.
Boston has earned its place as the overwhelming favorite.
Baltimore remains the one team that still offers a meaningful pricing edge.
That's exactly why I enjoy running these simulations throughout the month.
They're not about predicting the future with certainty.
They're about measuring probability, comparing it to the market, and identifying when the numbers don't agree.
We'll have one more update before July comes to a close and see if the market—or the model—gets the final word.
🎤 Built Models. Real Edges.
Built models. Real edges—that's the Basewinner style.
Overlays on the board, yeah the numbers shine bright...
No guessing on the winner, just comparing wrong from right...
Basewinner Barker checking if the Price Is Right.