August Division Winner Value Board

Throughout July, we went all in on Monte Carlo simulations for the Most Regular Season Wins market. The response was tremendous, and I hope those articles helped some of you find value throughout the month.

As the July project progressed, I kept coming back to another market DraftKings had posted: Monthly Division Winners.

My first thought was to simply extrapolate from the overall monthly win probabilities.

But the more I thought about it, the more I realized that wasn't the right approach.

A team's chances of finishing with the most wins in all of baseball aren't the same as its chances of finishing with the best record in its own division.

Those are two different questions that deserve two different simulations.

So instead of taking a shortcut, I decided to code it up.

I added a new Division Winner module to the Basewinner simulation engine. After rebuilding the latest component ratings, I simulated the entire August schedule 2,000 times to estimate each team's probability of finishing with the best record in its division for the month.

Interestingly, the results were largely consistent with what I suspected from the monthly simulations. The difference is that now they're supported by a simulation built specifically for the division market instead of an extrapolation.

That gives me a lot more confidence that we're answering the right question—and, ultimately, that's what this project is all about.

⭐ Basewinner Star: Philadelphia Phillies (NL East)

Philadelphia immediately jumped off the page.

The simulations give the Phillies a 57.25% probability of posting the best record in the NL East during August.

That translates to Basewinner Fair Odds of -134.

DraftKings is currently offering +190.

That's one of the largest overlays on the entire board.

The Phillies combine elite component ratings with an August schedule the simulations project very favorably.

⭐ Basewinner Value: Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central)

Milwaukee was another team the model liked.

The Brewers own a 42.65% probability of winning the NL Central during August, implying fair odds of +134.

DraftKings is offering +245.

That's one of the better values among the six division markets.

👀 Basewinner Watch List: Toronto Blue Jays (AL East)

Toronto may be the most interesting team on the board.

The simulations give the Blue Jays a 27.90% probability of winning the AL East during August, equivalent to fair odds of +258.

DraftKings is offering +450.

Purely on the numbers, that's an outstanding overlay.

The question isn't the model.

It's the trade deadline.

If Toronto decides to move key pieces before the deadline, today's component ratings won't represent the team that actually plays in August.

That's why Toronto lands on the Watch List rather than becoming an official play before the deadline.

⭐ Basewinner Value: Athletics (AL West)

The Athletics quietly emerged as another value opportunity.

The simulations give them a 20.10% probability of winning the AL West during August.

That translates to fair odds of +398.

DraftKings is offering +500.

It's not the biggest edge on the board, but it is another example of the model finding a team whose probability appears slightly higher than the market's expectation.

🚫 Basewinner Fade: Texas Rangers (AL West)

The Rangers are actually the model favorite in the AL West.

The issue isn't Texas.

It's the price.

Basewinner gives the Rangers a 31.40% probability of winning the division during August, equivalent to fair odds of approximately +218.

DraftKings is asking bettors to accept +135.

The simulations respect Texas.

They just don't believe +135 accurately reflects the risk.

The Trade Deadline Changes Everything

One of the reasons I enjoy these monthly markets is that they evolve.

These simulations reflect today's rosters.

After the trade deadline, I'll rebuild every team's component ratings using the updated player pool and rerun all 2,000 simulations.

I won't manually tweak the probabilities.

I'll rebuild the ratings, rerun the simulations, and let the numbers tell the story.

I'm looking forward to comparing the before-and-after boards to see which clubs gained value, which lost value, and how much the deadline actually mattered.