July's Most Wins Market: Finding Value Through 2,000 Simulations

Using Basewinner's proprietary team ratings for starting pitching, bullpen, offense, and defense, we simulated the remainder of July 2,000 times to estimate each team's true probability of finishing the month with the most wins. The result is a set of fair odds that can be compared directly to the betting market, helping identify where the price is right.

One of my favorite baseball futures each month is the "Most Regular Season Wins" market.

Unlike betting a single game, this market rewards looking beyond today's starting pitchers and asking a much bigger question:

Which team is most likely to finish July with more wins than every other club?

How the Model Works

Everything starts with our proprietary Basewinner Team Ratings, which combine four independent components:

• Starting Pitching

• Bullpen

• Offense

• Defense

These ratings estimate each team's underlying strength going forward.

But identifying the best team isn't enough.

Every remaining game on the July schedule is projected individually using the ratings of both teams, along with home-field advantage. That means the quality of every opponent is built directly into the model.

A great team facing a difficult schedule may actually have a lower probability of winning the month than a slightly weaker team with a much friendlier path.

2,000 Monte Carlo Simulations

Once every remaining game has a projected win probability, we let the computer take over.

The entire July schedule is simulated 2,000 times.

Each simulation produces a different version of the month. Sometimes the favorites dominate. Sometimes a team catches fire. Sometimes injuries, bullpen meltdowns, and baseball's natural variance create unexpected winners.

After all 2,000 simulations are complete, we simply count how many times each team finishes with the most wins.

Those probabilities are then converted into Basewinner Fair Odds and compared with the betting market.

The goal isn't to predict the future perfectly.

The goal is to consistently find prices where the market is offering better odds than a team's true probability of winning.

July Value Board

Why the Mets?

The Mets are the perfect example of why simulations can uncover value.

They're not projected to be one of baseball's elite teams over the long haul.

But they don't have to be.

They simply need one great month.

Our simulations have New York finishing July with the most wins 7.5% of the time, which translates to fair odds of roughly +1233.

If the sportsbook is offering +10000, that's the type of pricing discrepancy we're constantly looking to identify.

The Bombs 💣

The Orioles, Tigers, Twins, Nationals, and White Sox are exactly what I call "bombs."

No, they're not likely to win the month.

But they do win often enough in our simulations that, when paired with very large market prices, they become interesting lottery-ticket plays.

Longshots don't have to cash often to be profitable.

They simply need to win more often than the betting market implies.

A Note on the Trade Deadline

One important caveat: these simulations are based on each team's current component ratings and roster. They do not attempt to predict trades or roster moves before the deadline.

The idea is to estimate each team's true probability today based on the information we have right now. If a club becomes a buyer or seller later in the month, those probabilities will naturally change.

The Mets are a good example. If they fall out of contention and become sellers, their chances of finishing July with the most wins would likely decline. Likewise, a contender that acquires reinforcements at the deadline could improve its outlook.

Rather than trying to predict every front office's next move, I'd rather let the model evaluate teams as they're currently constructed.

That said, feel free to layer your own trade deadline opinions on top of these projections. If you believe a team is more likely to buy, sell, or stand pat than the market expects, that information can help you upgrade or downgrade its chances.

As the deadline approaches, I'll continue updating the ratings and simulations as new information becomes available.

Good luck this month, and as always...

🎤 Built Models. Real Edges.

Built models. Real edges... that's the Basewinner way.
Two thousand sims, let the numbers have their say.
If the odds beat the math... that's the ticket I like.
Basewinner Barker... so you know what Price Is Right.