July Most Wins Market Update: One Week In
When I published the original July Most Wins Market article, the goal wasn’t simply to predict who would have the best month.
The goal was to estimate each team’s true probability of finishing July with the most wins and compare those probabilities to the betting market.
Now that we’re one week into the month, it’s time for an update.
Updating the Model
One advantage of using simulations is that they aren’t static.
As games are played, the probabilities naturally change.
For this update, the model incorporates:
- Current July records
- Updated Basewinner team ratings
- Remaining July schedule
- Home-field advantage
- 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations
In other words, we’re asking:
Given everything that has happened through July 7, who is most likely to finish the month with the most wins?
Updated Value Board
The table below compares the model’s updated probability of winning July with the current betting market. When the market odds are longer than our fair odds, the team becomes a potential value play.
| Team | Win Probability | Basewinner Fair Odds | Market Odds | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 20.25% | +394 | +550 | ✅ Value |
| Minnesota Twins | 10.20% | +880 | +2000 | ⭐ Strong Value |
| Seattle Mariners | 9.15% | +993 | +1500 | ✅ Value |
| Baltimore Orioles | 5.80% | +1624 | +3000 | ⭐ Value |
| Detroit Tigers | 5.75% | +1639 | +1700 | Fair |
| Washington Nationals | 4.90% | +1941 | +5500 | 💣 Longshot Value |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 4.45% | +2147 | +4500 | ⭐ Value |
| Colorado Rockies | 3.90% | +2464 | +8000 | 💣 Bomb |
| Chicago Cubs | 3.60% | +2678 | +2200 | Slight Fade |
| Cleveland Guardians | 3.20% | +3025 | +2000 | Slight Fade |
| New York Mets | 3.15% | +3075 | +4000 | Fair |
Biggest Movers
The Dodgers remain the team to beat. At 20.25%, they are still the most likely team to finish July with the most wins, and the market price of +550 is still longer than the Basewinner fair price of +394.
The Twins have made one of the biggest jumps. After starting July 3-1, their updated probability is now 10.20%, implying fair odds around +880. With the market still offering +2000, Minnesota shows up as one of the strongest values on the board.
The Mariners remain firmly in the mix at 9.15%, and the Orioles, Nationals, Phillies, and Rockies all show various degrees of market value based on the updated simulations.
One Team the Model Disagrees With
Perhaps the biggest disagreement between the model and the market is the Milwaukee Brewers.
The sportsbook currently lists Milwaukee as the +320 favorite to finish July with the most wins.
My simulations tell a much different story.
Based on their current position, remaining schedule, and team ratings, Basewinner estimates their fair price closer to +4300.
That doesn’t guarantee the Brewers won’t win the month. They certainly can.
It simply means the market appears to be pricing them much more aggressively than the simulations suggest.
Those types of disagreements are exactly what I’m trying to uncover.
The Process Never Changes
The objective isn’t to predict the future perfectly.
The objective is to estimate each team’s true probability today using the best information currently available.
As more games are played, those probabilities will continue to evolve.
That’s why I’ll continue updating these simulations throughout the month and see where the market and the model continue to diverge.
Sometimes the value is on the favorite.
Sometimes it’s on a 20-1 contender.
Sometimes it’s hiding on an 80-1 bomb.
The process stays the same:
Build better ratings.
Simulate every outcome.
Compare the numbers.
Then decide whether the price is right.
🎤 Built Models. Real Edges.
Built models. Real edges—that’s the Basewinner creed.
Every game’s accounted for, every number takes the lead.
The market names a favorite, but the sims might disagree...
The model is humming —checking every price you see.