Basewinner Crunch

Built Models. Real Edges.

Ratings First - Numbers that matter

BaseWinner is a ratings-first MLB betting process built on proprietary metrics, matchup analytics, simulation models, and machine learning research. The objective is simple: identify value before the market fully adjusts and focus on the strongest opportunities on the board.

Why Basewinner?

Proprietary Metrics & Machine Learning

Custom metrics such as bwERA, combined with evolving machine learning models, help uncover edges traditional analysis often misses.

Selective and Process Driven

BaseWinner focuses on quality over quantity, targeting only the spots where projection, matchup context, and price align.

Public Track Record

Mark Borchard appears regularly on the BetUS MLB show where plays are tracked publicly throughout the season. Over the past three MLB seasons, the show has produced three consecutive profitable MLB years, a difficult accomplishment in the long and efficient baseball betting market.

Basewinner Premium: $499/season

For serious bettors looking for a deeper analytical edge.

What You Get

Full projections, matchup data, and ratings delivered by 6 PM Arizona time the day before the game, allowing subscribers to evaluate the board before much of the market moves. Historically, these overnight releases have generated closing line value on roughly 68% of games.

The signature BaseWinner chart provides the model’s full game breakdown, including ratings for starting pitching, bullpen strength, offense, and defense, translating directly into projected runs and matchup edges.

All Daily Plays
Access to every official play released through the BaseWinner process.

Daily BaseWinner Parlay
A signature component of the BaseWinner approach and an important part of the daily card

Pre-Season and In-Season Futures Plays
Season win totals and futures selections supported by detailed analysis and pricing context

Monte Carlo Season & Playoff Projections
Simulation-driven projections updated throughout the season

Exclusive Player Prop Strategy for 2026

BaseWinner Total Bases Parlay
When matchup metrics, lineup context, and projected run environment align, BaseWinner pairs two hitters from the same game to capture correlated offensive outcomes. By targeting shared game environments rather than isolated player props, the strategy can amplify upside when strong hitting conditions emerge.

The model focuses on identifying games where offensive conditions and lineup structure create the potential for multiple hitters to benefit from the same run-scoring environment.

In its inaugural 2025 season, the strategy produced:

  • 32 same-game opportunities
  • +23% ROI

For 2026, ongoing machine learning and backtesting efforts are focused on expanding and refining this approach.

Additional player prop opportunities may include:

  • Stolen Base Props & Parlays
  • Batter Hit Props & Parlays
  • Starting Pitcher Strikeout Props

This is a non-refundable product.

Basewinner Lite: $199/season

A streamlined version of the BaseWinner service.

What you get:
  • BaseWinner Chart: Access to all projections, matchup data, and ratings delivered at least one hour before the first game of the day
  • Daily BaseWinner Parlay: The signature BaseWinner parlay included with the Lite package

Please Note: The lite package includes the full card for that day's plays, but there will be no props on the lite card.

This is a non-refundable product.

Not ready yet? Sign up for free plays to start experiencing the Basewinner advantage!