August Division Winner Value Board - August 5th update
August Division Winner Value Board
Post-Trade Deadline Edition
When I published the original August Division Winner Value Board, I promised to rebuild the team ratings after the trade deadline, rerun all 2,000 simulations and let the updated numbers tell the story.
That is exactly what we have done.
This is not a manual adjustment to the original probabilities. The simulations have been rerun using the post-trade deadline player pool, updated Basewinner component ratings and actual August results through August 4, 2026.
The market we are evaluating is Most Regular Season Wins in August within each division. This is not a projection of who will win the season-long division title. We are trying to identify which team will post the best August record in its division.
For each division, the chart includes:
August record through August 4
Basewinner probability
Basewinner fair odds
Current DraftKings odds
The difference between the model probability and the market-implied probability
A positive edge means the Basewinner probability is higher than the probability implied by the market price. A negative edge means the market is asking bettors to pay for a probability our simulations do not support.
Let’s get into the Post-Trade Deadline board.
AL East
| Team | August Record | BW Probability | BW Fair Odds | DK Odds | BW Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 3-0 | 29.35% | +241 | +120 | -16.10% |
| New York Yankees | 2-2 | 29.35% | +241 | +550 | +13.97% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3-1 | 29.30% | +241 | +310 | +4.91% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 2-2 | 10.40% | +862 | +700 | -2.10% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1-2 | 1.60% | +6150 | +900 | -8.40% |
⭐ Best Value: New York Yankees (+550)
The AL East is essentially a three-team coin flip disguised as a market with a clear favorite.
Boston is 3-0, Tampa Bay is 3-1 and the Yankees are 2-2. Yet after simulating the remainder of August, Basewinner assigns Boston and New York identical 29.35% probabilities, with Tampa Bay only five-hundredths of a percentage point behind at 29.30%.
The market is pricing a completely different race.
Boston’s +120 price implies approximately a 45.45% chance. New York’s +550 price implies only 15.38%.
Our simulations make the Yankees approximately +241, giving New York nearly twice the probability implied by its current market price. Tampa Bay also presents value at +310, but the Yankees are the clear Best Value because the three contenders project almost identically while New York carries by far the largest number.
🚫 BW Fade: Boston Red Sox (+120)
Boston is not the fade because the Red Sox are a bad team or because their 3-0 start is meaningless.
They are the fade because the price assumes separation that does not exist in the simulations.
Basewinner gives Boston a 29.35% probability, equivalent to fair odds of +241. DraftKings is offering only +120.
The Red Sox may be one of the three most likely winners, but they should not be priced as though they are substantially more likely than New York or Tampa Bay.
AL Central
| Team | August Record | BW Probability | BW Fair Odds | DK Odds | BW Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 3-0 | 41.90% | +139 | +115 | -4.61% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1-2 | 37.55% | +166 | +340 | +14.82% |
| Chicago White Sox | 1-2 | 11.55% | +766 | +450 | -6.63% |
| Minnesota Twins | 0-3 | 7.30% | +1270 | +950 | -2.22% |
| Kansas City Royals | 1-2 | 1.70% | +5782 | +800 | -9.41% |
⭐ Best Value: Cleveland Guardians (+340)
Detroit has taken early control of the standings with a 3-0 start, but the Basewinner simulations still see a competitive two-team race.
The Tigers lead with a 41.90% probability, while Cleveland remains close behind at 37.55% despite starting August 1-2.
That is a gap of only 4.35 percentage points.
The market gap is much wider. Detroit is priced at +115, while Cleveland is available at +340.
Basewinner makes the Guardians approximately +166, creating a 14.82-percentage-point advantage over the market-implied probability. Detroit is slightly more likely to win, but Cleveland is unquestionably the stronger betting value.
🚫 BW Fade: Kansas City Royals (+800)
Kansas City has only a 1.70% probability of posting the AL Central’s best August record.
That translates to Basewinner fair odds of approximately +5782.
The available +800 may look attractive because it is a long number, but the odds are nowhere close to long enough relative to the model probability.
The White Sox are also overpriced at +450, but Kansas City has the division’s largest negative probability edge and is the clearest fade.
AL West
| Team | August Record | BW Probability | BW Fair Odds | DK Odds | BW Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 3-1 | 39.75% | +152 | +180 | +4.04% |
| Texas Rangers | 1-3 | 26.20% | +282 | +250 | -2.37% |
| Seattle Mariners | 2-1 | 20.65% | +384 | +250 | -7.92% |
| Athletics | 0-3 | 7.15% | +1299 | +1100 | -1.18% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1-2 | 6.25% | +1500 | +1100 | -2.08% |
⭐ Best Value: Houston Astros (+180)
The AL West is one of the more efficiently priced divisions, but Houston still offers a modest overlay.
The Astros are 3-1 and lead the simulations with a 39.75% probability. That translates to fair odds of +152, compared with the current DraftKings price of +180.
It is not the largest edge on the board, but Houston is the only AL West team with a meaningful positive discrepancy between the Basewinner probability and the market price.
Texas remains a legitimate contender at 26.20%, but its +250 price is slightly shorter than the BW fair price of +282.
🚫 BW Fade: Seattle Mariners (+250)
Seattle has opened August 2-1 and is priced identically to Texas at +250.
The simulations do not view the two teams equally.
Texas has a 26.20% probability, while Seattle sits at 20.65%. That gives the Mariners fair odds of approximately +384.
The market price implies a 28.57% probability, nearly eight percentage points higher than the Basewinner projection.
Seattle can certainly win, but +250 does not adequately compensate bettors for the model’s estimated probability.
NL East
| Team | August Record | BW Probability | BW Fair Odds | DK Odds | BW Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 4-0 | 69.80% | -231 | -110 | +17.42% |
| Atlanta Braves | 3-0 | 24.80% | +303 | +200 | -8.53% |
| Miami Marlins | 2-1 | 4.10% | +2339 | +700 | -8.40% |
| New York Mets | 1-2 | 0.75% | +13233 | +1300 | -6.39% |
| Washington Nationals | 0-4 | 0.55% | +18082 | +3000 | -2.68% |
⭐ Best Value: Philadelphia Phillies (-110)
Philadelphia was already the Basewinner Star in the original division board. The corrected August results and post-deadline simulations have only strengthened the case.
The Phillies are now 4-0 and have a 69.80% probability of posting the NL East’s best August record.
That translates to fair odds of approximately -231.
DraftKings is still offering -110.
The market price implies a probability of approximately 52.38%, while the Basewinner probability is more than 17 percentage points higher.
This is an important reminder that value is not determined by whether the odds have a plus or minus sign. It is determined by the relationship between probability and price.
Philadelphia is both the most likely division winner on the entire board and one of the strongest values available.
🚫 BW Fade: Atlanta Braves (+200)
The corrected simulation slightly changes the NL East fade.
Atlanta is 3-0 and clearly remains Philadelphia’s primary challenger, but the Braves have only a 24.80% probability in the simulations.
That translates to fair odds of +303, compared with a market price of +200.
Miami is also significantly overpriced at +700 compared with Basewinner fair odds of +2339. However, Atlanta now carries the slightly larger negative probability edge.
The Braves are a real contender. The issue is that bettors are being asked to pay a price that implies a one-in-three chance when the model comes in closer to one in four.
NL Central
| Team | August Record | BW Probability | BW Fair Odds | DK Odds | BW Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 3-1 | 37.35% | +168 | +145 | -3.47% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 2-2 | 23.30% | +329 | +425 | +4.25% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 2-1 | 22.40% | +346 | +240 | -7.01% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2-2 | 10.70% | +835 | +850 | +0.17% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2-2 | 6.25% | +1500 | +1100 | -2.08% |
⭐ Best Value: Milwaukee Brewers (+425)
Milwaukee remains the best value in the NL Central.
Chicago is the deserving favorite after starting 3-1 and leads the simulations with a 37.35% probability. The Cubs’ +145 market price is slightly shorter than the Basewinner fair price of +168.
Milwaukee is 2-2 and carries a 23.30% probability, equivalent to fair odds of +329. DraftKings is offering +425.
That produces a 4.25-percentage-point positive edge.
St. Louis is also almost perfectly priced, with a 10.70% Basewinner probability against a market-implied probability of 10.53%.
🚫 BW Fade: Cincinnati Reds (+240)
Cincinnati is 2-1 and is priced as the second choice at +240.
Basewinner sees the race differently.
The Reds have a 22.40% probability, slightly below Milwaukee’s 23.30%, yet Cincinnati is priced much shorter than the Brewers.
The Basewinner fair price on the Reds is +346. The market’s +240 price implies a 29.41% probability, more than seven percentage points above the model.
Cincinnati may be ahead of Milwaukee in the early standings, but the current price does not offer sufficient value.
NL West
| Team | August Record | BW Probability | BW Fair Odds | DK Odds | BW Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0-4 | 39.40% | +154 | +260 | +11.62% |
| San Diego Padres | 3-1 | 34.00% | +194 | +160 | -4.46% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 2-2 | 20.30% | +393 | +280 | -6.02% |
| San Francisco Giants | 1-3 | 3.15% | +3075 | +800 | -7.96% |
| Colorado Rockies | 2-2 | 3.15% | +3075 | +2000 | -1.61% |
⭐ Best Value: Los Angeles Dodgers (+260)
This remains the clearest example of why we simulate the remainder of the month rather than simply reacting to the standings.
The Dodgers have opened August 0-4. San Diego is 3-1 and Arizona is 2-2.
Yet the updated simulations still make Los Angeles the most likely NL West winner at 39.40%.
The poor start has reduced the Dodgers’ margin for error, but the model still views them as the strongest team over the remaining schedule.
Basewinner prices Los Angeles at +154, while DraftKings is offering +260. That creates an 11.62-percentage-point edge.
The 0-4 start is not being ignored. It is already included in the simulation. The question is whether the market has overreacted to four games.
According to the Basewinner numbers, it has.
🚫 BW Fade: San Francisco Giants (+800)
San Francisco is 1-3 and has only a 3.15% probability of posting the NL West’s best August record.
That translates to fair odds of approximately +3075.
The market is offering only +800.
Arizona is also overpriced at +280 compared with a Basewinner fair price of +393, but San Francisco has the largest negative probability edge in the division.
A long price is not automatically a value price. In this case, +800 is still far too short.
Post-Trade Deadline Value Board
| Division | Best Value | DK Odds | BW Fair Odds | BW Fade | DK Odds | BW Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL East | New York Yankees | +550 | +241 | Boston Red Sox | +120 | +241 |
| AL Central | Cleveland Guardians | +340 | +166 | Kansas City Royals | +800 | +5782 |
| AL West | Houston Astros | +180 | +152 | Seattle Mariners | +250 | +384 |
| NL East | Philadelphia Phillies | -110 | -231 | Atlanta Braves | +200 | +303 |
| NL Central | Milwaukee Brewers | +425 | +329 | Cincinnati Reds | +240 | +346 |
| NL West | Los Angeles Dodgers | +260 | +154 | San Francisco Giants | +800 | +3075 |
Strongest Model Edges
The six division values are not equally strong.
The largest positive discrepancies on the board are:
Philadelphia Phillies -110: +17.42 percentage points
Cleveland Guardians +340: +14.82 percentage points
New York Yankees +550: +13.97 percentage points
Los Angeles Dodgers +260: +11.62 percentage points
Tampa Bay Rays +310: +4.91 percentage points
Milwaukee Brewers +425: +4.25 percentage points
Houston Astros +180: +4.04 percentage points
That does not mean each selection carries the same risk profile. Philadelphia is a strong favorite whose probability appears understated, while New York, Cleveland and Los Angeles are plus-money positions where the model sees the market discounting their chances too aggressively.
Final Thoughts
What I like most about this update is that it demonstrates exactly why these simulations are useful.
Boston is 3-0, but the model sees an overpriced favorite.
Cleveland is 1-2, but the model sees substantial value.
Philadelphia is already the market favorite, but the simulations still believe the Phillies are meaningfully underpriced.
The Dodgers are 0-4, but their remaining projection is strong enough to make +260 one of the largest overlays on the board.
We are not ignoring the games already played, and we are not blindly chasing the teams with the best early records. Those results are included in the simulations along with the post-trade deadline rosters and rebuilt Basewinner component ratings.
The goal is to estimate each team’s true probability over the entire month and compare that probability with the price being offered.
That is where the edge lives.
Records, probabilities and DraftKings odds reflect the August 5, 2026 market snapshot. Basewinner probabilities were produced from 2,000 simulations. Ties are handled within the Basewinner simulation methodology.