July Most Wins Market Update: All-Star Break Edition
Two weeks ago I published my first look at the July Most Wins market before a game had been played.
Now we're at the All-Star break, nearly half the month is behind us, and it's time to see how both the standings and the betting market have evolved.
One thing I love about this market is that it's never static. Every game changes the probabilities, and every update tells a new story.
After updating the July records through July 13, refreshing the Basewinner team ratings, accounting for the remaining schedule, and running 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, here's where the market stands today.
Updated Value Board
| Team | July Record | Win Probability | Basewinner Fair Odds | Market Odds | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 9-1 | 24.55% | +307 | +110 | Market Caught Up |
| Minnesota Twins | 7-3 | 13.45% | +643 | +1800 | ✅ Strong Value |
| Baltimore Orioles | 7-3 | 11.80% | +747 | +2500 | ✅ Strong Value |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 7-5 | 8.80% | +1036 | +700 | Pass |
| Detroit Tigers | 7-3 | 8.65% | +1056 | +1300 | Fair |
| Chicago Cubs | 6-4 | 7.55% | +1225 | +1900 | ✅ Value |
| Cleveland Guardians | 7-4 | 4.95% | +1920 | +1300 | Pass |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 6-5 | 4.35% | +2199 | +4500 | 💣 Basewinner Bomb |
A Tip of the Cap
Every Tuesday during baseball season I have the privilege of joining Gill Alexander on A Numbers Game to talk baseball.
When we discussed this market at the beginning of July, Gill's selection was the Boston Red Sox.
Safe to say that pick has aged pretty well.
Boston heads into the All-Star break with a 9-1 record in July and remains the most likely team to finish the month with the most wins.
Nice call, Gill.
Where I Still See Value
The biggest story isn't that Boston is the favorite.
It's that the market has completely caught up.
At +110, the Red Sox are now priced well below my fair odds of +307. They're still the most likely winner—but I don't believe they're the best bet anymore.
Instead, my attention turns to a few teams where I still believe there's value.
⭐ Minnesota Twins (+1800)
The Twins have quietly put together an excellent month and still own the second-highest probability in the simulations. At nearly three times my fair price, they remain my favorite play on the board.
⭐ Baltimore Orioles (+2500)
Baltimore has matched Minnesota's 7-3 start, yet the market continues to undervalue their chances. They remain one of my favorite value positions entering the second half of July.
✅ Chicago Cubs (+1900)
The Cubs have plenty of runway left and continue to rate better than the market suggests.
💣 Basewinner Bomb: Philadelphia Phillies (+4500)
This week's Basewinner Bomb belongs to Philadelphia.
The Phillies are just 6-5 in July, but the simulations still give them a 4.35% chance of finishing the month with the most wins, implying fair odds of approximately +2200.
At +4500, that's exactly the type of longshot I like adding to the portfolio.
Looking Ahead
The All-Star break gives us a chance to pause, but there's still plenty of baseball left in July.
The standings will change.
The market will adjust.
The simulations will evolve.
And that's exactly what makes this one of my favorite futures markets to follow.
I'll continue updating the numbers as the month unfolds and we'll see whether the market—or the model—gets the final word.
Until next time...
🎤 Built Models. Real Edges.
Built models. Real edges—that's the Basewinner style.
Gill hit Boston early... had me tipping with a smile.
Overlays on the board, yeah the numbers shine bright...
Basewinner Barker checking if the Price Is Right.