The 2026 Basewinner First Team: Starting Pitchers
The 2026 Basewinner First Team: Starting Pitchers
The All-Star break has always been one of my favorite points on the baseball calendar.
It's a chance to step back, evaluate the first half, and separate sustainable performance from short-term results before the stretch run begins.
Yesterday we recognized the game's top offensive performers using our proprietary BW Runs model.
Today, it's the pitchers' turn.
Unlike traditional rankings that rely heavily on ERA, wins, or reputation, the Basewinner First Team is built using our Starting Pitching Rating (ML)—the same rating that powers our daily projections throughout the season.
At the heart of that rating is bwml ERA (Basewinner Machine Learning ERA), our proprietary machine-learning estimate of a pitcher's true run-prevention ability. Built on strikeout ability, walk prevention, ground-ball profile, adjusted quality of contact, and additional model calibration, bwml ERA serves as the foundation of every pitching projection we make.
For today's article, we averaged the bwml ERA of each club's current projected five-man rotation and compared it with each rotation's traditional ERA. The result is a side-by-side comparison of how every staff has performed versus how our model believes it is likely to perform going forward.
Traditional ERA tells us what has happened.
bwml ERA is designed to estimate what is most likely to happen next.
🏆 Basewinner First Team Rotations
🥇 Philadelphia Phillies
Rotation bwml ERA: 3.07
Rotation ERA: 3.50
Philadelphia claims the top spot thanks to exceptional depth from top to bottom. Few clubs can match the Phillies' combination of frontline talent and rotation depth, and three starters own elite bwml ERAs, making Philadelphia our top-rated rotation entering the second half.
🥈 Detroit Tigers
Rotation bwml ERA: 3.50
Rotation ERA: 3.05
Detroit combines one of baseball's premier aces with outstanding depth throughout the rotation. The Tigers have quietly assembled one of the strongest starting staffs in baseball.
🥉 Milwaukee Brewers
Rotation bwml ERA: 3.58
Rotation ERA: 3.78
Milwaukee continues to prove that dominant pitching doesn't have to come from a big-market club. Built on power stuff and outstanding player development, the Brewers once again field one of baseball's most impressive young rotations.
⭐ Rotation Stars
Philadelphia Phillies
⭐ Zack Wheeler — 2.38 bwml ERA
⭐ Jesús Luzardo — 2.49 bwml ERA
⭐ Cristopher Sánchez — 3.18 bwml ERA
The Phillies are the only club with three starters under a 3.20 bwml ERA, making them the clear choice for baseball's top rotation entering the second half.
Detroit Tigers
⭐ Tarik Skubal — 2.38 bwml ERA
⭐ Troy Melton — 3.54 bwml ERA
⭐ Jack Flaherty — 4.03 bwml ERA
Skubal continues to perform like one of the game's true aces, while Detroit's supporting cast gives this club tremendous rotation depth.
Milwaukee Brewers
⭐ Jacob Misiorowski — 2.37 bwml ERA
⭐ Logan Henderson — 3.04 bwml ERA
⭐ Brandon Sproat — 3.76 bwml ERA
Few organizations continue to develop starting pitching like Milwaukee, and this rotation reflects that success.
🦃 Turkey Rotations
Not every rotation enters the second half with positive momentum.
🦃 Arizona Diamondbacks
Rotation bwml ERA: 4.86
🦃 San Diego Padres
Rotation bwml ERA: 4.68
🦃 Chicago White Sox
Rotation bwml ERA: 4.66
These clubs have struggled to consistently generate the strikeouts, command, and quality-of-contact profile our model rewards. With more than two months remaining, there is still plenty of time to change that story, but the underlying indicators suggest work remains to be done.
📈 Basewinner Sabermetric Underperformers (30+ IP)
One of the biggest advantages of looking beyond ERA is identifying pitchers whose underlying skill set has been stronger than the results.
While our Starting Pitching Rating (ML) incorporates additional variables, the largest differences between ERA and bwml ERA often identify pitchers whose future performance may be better than their current statistics suggest.
Biggest Positive Gaps
1. Kyle Freeland (COL)
ERA: 7.36 → bwml ERA: 4.18
2. Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)
ERA: 7.55 → bwml ERA: 4.47
3. David Peterson (NYM)
ERA: 7.84 → bwml ERA: 4.86
4. Tatsuya Imai (HOU)
ERA: 6.06 → bwml ERA: 3.66
5. Miles Mikolas (WSN)
ERA: 8.53 → bwml ERA: 6.37
These are pitchers we'll continue watching closely during the second half.
📉 Basewinner Sabermetric Overperformers (30+ IP)
Outstanding ERAs don't always tell the complete story.
These pitchers have produced excellent traditional results, but our model believes their underlying performance hasn't been quite as dominant.
Biggest Negative Gaps
1. Nick Martinez (TB)
ERA: 2.65 → bwml ERA: 5.83
2. Michael McGreevy (STL)
ERA: 3.01 → bwml ERA: 5.51
3. Justin Wrobleski (LAD)
ERA: 2.52 → bwml ERA: 4.83
4. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)
ERA: 2.29 → bwml ERA: 4.48
5. Bryce Miller (SEA)
ERA: 2.05 → bwml ERA: 4.13
Regression is never guaranteed.
These are simply the pitchers where our model currently sees the largest disconnect between traditional results and underlying performance.
🔬 Behind the Numbers
Every rating in today's article was generated through the Basewinner analytics pipeline.
Each game updates our adjusted-events database, recalculates bwml ERA, and feeds directly into our Starting Pitching Rating (ML), matchup projections, simulations, and daily projections.
It's been one of the most rewarding projects I've worked on, and I'm excited to finally begin sharing more of what's happening behind the scenes.
Ultimately, that's what we're trying to do every day at Basewinner—not simply describe what has already happened, but better understand what is most likely to happen next.
📝 Basewinner Notes
🦴 Doghouse Rating: 🦴🦴🦴🦴🦴
My wife has officially informed me that I've been "checked out" while building this pitching pipeline. I'd say that's a fair trade for a model I'm really proud of... although she may disagree.
☕ Coffee Consumed: 2 cups (not including pipeline development.)
⚾ Current Rotation Starters Evaluated: 150
⚙️ Pipeline: bwml ERA → Starting Pitching Rating (ML) → Daily Projections
📅 Data Through: July 15, 2026
Here's to the Second Half
The All-Star break always feels like the turning point of the baseball season.
Over the past week, we've begun sharing more of the work behind the Basewinner analytics pipeline—from BW Runs to bwml ERA—and there are plenty more ideas in the works as we continue building tools, dashboards, and content throughout the second half.
I truly appreciate everyone who has followed along, read the articles, shared the posts, and supported Basewinner over the years. It means more than you know.
Here's to a great second half of baseball.
Let's find some value, cash some tickets, and enjoy the ride.
– Basewinner