2025 NL West Betting Preview: Diamondbacks Poised to Challenge Dodgers
Looking for an edge in your MLB betting this season? Our comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations (5,000 season runs) have uncovered significant value in the NL West that the market appears to be undervaluing. Let's dive into the advanced baseball metrics and modeling insights driving our best bets for the 2025 season.
The Surprising D-backs vs. Dodgers Battle
One of the most compelling storylines from our simulations is just how close the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers truly are. While the market heavily favors LA, our Monte Carlo simulation modeling actually gives Arizona a 52.5% chance to win the division, compared to the Dodgers at 46.0%. That’s a true toss-up, yet the betting market is still pricing the Dodgers as heavy favorites!
The Diamondbacks' lineup is stacked with talent, featuring Ketel Marte (157 bwrc100) and Josh Naylor (142 bwrc100) leading a balanced attack. Their bullpen is anchored by A.J. Puk, whose projected 1.94 ERA ranks him #1 among closers in our BaseWinner bullpen metrics.
Win Band Projections – Where the Market Gets It Wrong
📊 Arizona Diamondbacks Win Band Distribution
📊 Los Angeles Dodgers Win Band Distribution
🔹 Key Takeaways:
Arizona has a 87.7% chance of winning 96+ games – significantly higher than the market anticipates.
Los Angeles has just a 1.2% chance of reaching 113+ wins, showing that the idea of them dominating the division may be overstated.
My NL West Betting Portfolio
Based on these advanced modeling insights, here are the bets I'm placing (all 1 unit unless noted):
Best Record, #1 Seed & Awards Bets
Best Record - D'Backs +2500
D’Backs #1 Seed in NL +1600
NL Manager of the Year - Torey Lovullo +1100
🔹 Monte Carlo Edge:
Arizona #1 Seed Probability: 49.4% (Fair ML +102)
LA Dodgers #1 Seed Probability: 41.1% (Fair ML +143)
Market price of +1600 on Arizona is an absolute steal compared to our projections.
Player Props Featuring NL West Players
Most Stolen Bases – Carroll +800, Ohtani +1000
NL MVP – K. Marte +2800 (Part of a group of 5)
Pitcher Most Wins – Burnes +1600
NL Cy Young – Yamamoto +2500, Pfaadt +10000, Burnes +1200 (Three of five selections)
Win Totals & Favorite Win Bands
Arizona 96+ Wins (2 units) +465
LA Dodgers 101-106 Wins +280
D’Backs Over 86.5 Wins (5 Units)
Giants to Make the Playoffs +207 (46% chance per simulations)
🔹 Monte Carlo Projection Edge:
Arizona’s median win total is closer to 96 than 86.5—making their over a 5-unit play.
Exacta Bets – The Best Way to Attack the Market
1st ARI / 2nd LAD +170
1st LAD / 2nd ARI +700
🔹 Monte Carlo Projection Edge:
Arizona 1st, Dodgers 2nd – 49.4% probability (Fair ML -102)
Dodgers 1st, Arizona 2nd – 39.2% probability (Fair ML +155)
Market price on D’Backs 1st, LAD 2nd is a massive +700, making it one of my favorite bets.
The Methodology Behind the Projections
Our projections aren't just guesswork. They're built on advanced baseball handicapping models using:
✅ Batter Analysis – Examining each player's last 500 plate appearances, adjusted with our proprietary park factors and runs created formula.
✅ Starting Pitching Analysis – Reviewing 17-game samples for established pitchers and Steamer projections for new arms.
✅ Bullpen Evaluation – Analyzing 300 PA samples for each reliever, calculating a contextual BaseWinner ERA using K%, BB%, and GB%.
The Corbin Burnes Factor – A Prime Futures Target
Corbin Burnes is at the center of my pitching futures portfolio, and for good reason. As a proven workhorse and the clear SP1 in Arizona's rotation, he’s positioned to make a serious run at both leading the league in wins and capturing the NL Cy Young. His elite Pitching+ metrics, combined with his decision to turn down more money to stay in Arizona, suggest a pitcher fully locked in for a dominant season. With strong team support, durability, and ace-level stuff, Burnes is a perfect candidate for:
Most Wins (+1600) – A high-upside play given his role atop the D-backs' rotation.
NL Cy Young (+1200) – His elite command, swing-and-miss ability, and consistency make this a strong value bet.
Given his combination of skill, motivation, and opportunity, Burnes stands out as one of the best futures investments on the board this season.
Updated Projected Standings (Monte Carlo Simulation vs. Market Odds)
Final Thoughts – Let's Beat the Market
For my full MLB betting portfolio, check out BaseWinner.com and watch my comprehensive video breakdown at YouTube.
Let’s beat the books together! 🚀⚾