2016 BaseWinner Analytics


Advanced Metrics used by over 500 Successful MLB Handicappers...

Our Approach is to Simplify Complex Sabermetrics into Actionable Information

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2016 MLB Season Remaining


Hi, my name is Mark. I am known as the ‘Basewinner’ in the industry.  I am 45 years old, with a background in Economics.

Our approach is to simplify complex sabermetrics into actionable info. 

iPadI have spent the past 10 years analyzing individual MLB games and developing predictive data sets taking the advanced metrics on sites like Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs to make them usable for the daily MLB handicapper.

Our team has used my background, a powerful software platform, mathematics, creativity and hard work to build the BaseWinner Analytics advanced MLB game prediction and player evaluation product.

I have been inspired by work of Bill James, David Smyth and Nate Silver, and we have further developed their Runs Created formulas.

Powered by a powerful software platform and some mathematical gymnastics, we have to built the BaseWinner Analytics Game Prediction and Player Evaluation Model.

In trading, you only need two variables in place to wind up on top: a slight statistical advantage and a long enough timeline. The confusing nature of sabermetrics in baseball creates a statistical advantage, and the long grind of a 162 game season gives us time.

BaseWinner Analytics

The search for objective knowledge about baseball

Our team of programmers have been crunching our databases that now contains advanced situational stats and forecasts for all 600+ projected batters and 500+ pitchers for the 2016 season. We focused on the key question relevant to baseball betting: What actionable information can we pull out of this massive data-set?

Our approach is to simplify complex sabermetrics into actionable info. Our team has devoted hundreds of hours researching to identify the best opportunities for profit.

Our Goal is to Project Future Performance

The primary method of doing this is to weigh key performance statistics by their predictive ability. That is, their ability to predict future performance rather than describe past ability.

At a high level, we use 3 core sabermetrics to predict future performance. The three metrics (that we have broken down further) you may be familiar with as a fan and a bettor. These are xFIP for pitching, Runs Created for batters and Defensive Runs Saved for fielding.

Our team has advanced and expanded these numbers with unique weighted calculations. The result is four of our most important and predictive metrics - Starter Adjusted Runs Allowed Runs (bwSPxERA), Relief Adjusted Runs Allowed (bwRPxERA), Adjusted Base Runs Created (bwRC) and Fielding projections (bwFLD).

We have also broken them down into the four main splits for batters - Home, Away, vs. Left, and vs. Right. These splits are essential to weigh correctly and are relevant and special to baseball betting.

Unique to BaseWinner Analytics:

  • We take into account sample size and recent performance data and weigh both factors with best fit predictive measurements.
  • We adjust each individual’s past stats for ballpark factors.
  • For each individual batter, we norm each metric for the opponent faced talent level and league-wide performance.
  • Our park factors are unique in that they account for the talent level that has played at the stadium and are also calculated for handedness.

The Algorithm

These raw talent numbers are the weapons we take into the battlefield and grind of daily baseball handicapping. Our software uses these figures to churn out a true odds money line and total for each game.

The BaseWinner offensive projections for each team are based on the nine individual batters that comprise the projected lineup. The offensive forecast accounts for each player’s situational talent level and projected plate appearances.

For defense, the BaseWinner game model takes into account each starting pitcher’s talent level, expected batters faced and venue. We then add the bullpen rating, which is unique to each starting pitcher based on talent level metrics and expected innings pitched of the relief pitchers who are likely to pitch behind him.

We add ‘Defensive Runs Saved’ metrics for each individual player in the field to complete the Total Defensive projections for the game.

The BaseWinner Line is finalized by factoring in our unique ballpark factors (that are not available to the public) and umpire tendencies.

The BaseWinner Line

This official BaseWinner line is what you use to gain an edge on the daily Las Vegas Odds Line. For self-handicappers and professionals, this will be the foundation for your inside track to profit in MLB.

If you are looking for daily picks, we have a service for you as well. We have reviewed our past performance over the last 4 years and 4000+ monitored picks. We have a positive ROI over this time, and after reviewing for profitability, we have found areas to further improve play selection & profitability.

Get 1 FREE BaseWinner game EVERYDAY!

privacy We value your privacy and would never spam you