World Series Watch: Dodgers Surge, Mariners Stumble, Jays Hold Steady
The ALCS has been chaotic. The simulations still show a Dodgers–Mariners collision course for the World Series, but that once-solid Seattle confidence has cracked a little. After racing out to a 2–0 lead, the Mariners have coughed it up — we’re tied 2–2 and momentum has slipped north to south.
BaseWinner’s latest 5,000-run Monte Carlo update has the Dodgers roaring ahead and everyone else trying to keep pace.
Updated Advancement Probabilities (%):
| Team | Win LCS | Win WS |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 96.1% | 54.8% |
| Seattle Mariners | 56.4% | 26.3% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 43.6% | 17.3% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 3.9% | 1.5% |
Market vs. Model (World Series Odds)
| Team | DK Odds | Implied % | Model % | Edge (Model – Market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | −190 | 65.5 % | 54.8 % | −10.7 pts (Overpriced) |
| Seattle Mariners | +375 | 21.1 % | 26.3 % | +5.2 pts (Still Value) |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +400 | 20.0 % | 17.3 % | −2.7 pts |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +5000 | 2.0 % | 1.5 % | −0.5 pts |
Takeaway:
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The Dodgers are the clear favorite — but you’re paying a perfection tax.
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The Mariners remain slightly underpriced by the books even after two straight losses, though the trend is concerning.
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Toronto’s odds have flattened; the model views them fairly valued.
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Milwaukee is technically alive, spiritually embalmed.
Toronto’s Takeoff — and Seattle’s Counterpunch
While the Mariners search for answers, the Blue Jays keep taking textbook October swings. The model still gives them a 43.6% chance to reach the Fall Classic, powered by elite zone discipline and consistent contact quality across the lineup.
Toronto has excelled in the strike zone, punishing mistakes and spitting on pitches just off it. George Springer, ranked #6 in all MLB hitters on the BaseWinner Offense scale vs. RHP, has set the tone — tracking spin, working counts, and finding barrels when it matters most. This lineup doesn’t chase; it capitalizes.
Still, the Mariners aren’t out of it — not by a long shot. Their depth and pitching balance give them a legitimate counterpunch. With arms like George Kirby and Logan Gilbert lined up, Seattle can turn any game into a run-suppression clinic. The bats have cooled, but if they string together a few quality plate appearances, the numbers — and the narrative — can flip quickly.
⚾ Next update: full World Series simulations once the LCS wraps — same BaseWinner rigor, maybe fewer heart palpitations.