LDS Update: Jays in Control, Mariners on the Move, Brewers Grinding, Dodgers Pricey
The Division Series rolls on, and the BaseWinner simulations are locked in with full context — series state, projected rotations, and updated component ratings for pitching, fielding, and baserunning.
After 1,000 new Monte Carlo runs, here’s where things stand entering midweek:
Updated Advancement Probabilities (%):
| Team | LDS Win | LCS Win | WS Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 83.6% | 36.8% | 17.5% |
| Seattle Mariners | 52.3% | 31.6% | 18.5% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 69.5% | 30.5% | 13.7% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 75.5% | 43.4% | 23.0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 47.7% | 23.7% | 11.1% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 24.5% | 13.3% | 6.5% |
| Chicago Cubs | 30.5% | 12.8% | 5.6% |
| New York Yankees | 16.4% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
AL Recap: Jays in Command, Mariners Hit the Road
The Blue Jays are playing like a team engineered for October. After back-to-back home wins, they lead the Yankees 2–0 and own an 83.6% chance to advance to the ALCS.
-
Saturday: Kevin Gausman was surgical — cool as ice and zero panic.
-
Sunday: Rookie Trey “Savage” Yesavage was exactly that — a savage. He didn’t allow a single hit and struck out 11 of 18 batters faced. His start shifted the entire projection, boosting Toronto’s staff-wide suppression metrics for the rest of the series.
Next up is Shane Bieber on Tuesday, and yes, the model’s got a touch of Bieber Fever. His projected suppression and command could make this a sweep — cue the chorus: “Baby, baby, baby, oh.”
The Mariners, meanwhile, split the first two and now head to Detroit. Despite losing home field, Seattle still has a 52.3% chance to advance — a small edge built on pitching depth and matchup history.
Projected starters Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller give Seattle reliable command and length. Should it reach Game 5, Tarik Skubal looms — but Seattle’s beaten Skubal three straight times, outhitting Detroit 25–15 in those games.
It’s a tough road trip, but the M’s have confidence, history, and a live edge.
NL Recap: Brewers Grinding, Dodgers Overpriced
The Brewers keep playing winning baseball the quiet way — top-five in suppression, top-five in defense, and #1 in baserunning. They now sit at 69.5% to advance, with Freddy Peralta in full command and the bullpen posting elite leverage performance.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are as good as their record suggests — but the market has taken it too far. DraftKings lists them at +210, implying a 32% chance to win the World Series.
The BaseWinner model pegs them at 23%, making L.A. the most overpriced team on the board.
At this number, you’re betting a Hollywood script and a desire to hear Randy Newman — not probability.
Simulation vs. DraftKings World Series Odds
| Team | Sim WS % | DK Odds | Market Implied % | Value Edge (Sim – Market) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5% | +425 | 19.0% | –1.5% |
| Seattle Mariners | 18.5% | +600 | 14.3% | +4.2% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 13.7% | +550 | 15.4% | –1.7% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 23.0% | +210 | 32.3% | –9.3% (Overpriced) |
| Detroit Tigers | 11.1% | +800 | 11.1% | ≈ Even |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 6.5% | +900 | 10.0% | –3.5% |
| Chicago Cubs | 5.6% | +1400 | 6.7% | –1.1% |
| New York Yankees | 4.2% | +1600 | 5.9% | –1.7% |
Takeaway:
-
Seattle remains the best model-to-market edge (+4.2%).
-
Dodgers are elite but overpriced by nearly 10 points.
-
Toronto and Milwaukee hover near fair value.
-
Detroit offers intrigue, not inefficiency.
BaseWinner Breakdown
-
🧮 Sims now account for series state, rotation plans, and component updates.
-
⚾ Toronto dominant behind Gausman, Savage Yesavage, and Bieber Fever.
-
🌊 Seattle slightly favored even on the road — depth and past success vs Skubal.
-
🧢 Milwaukee keeps beating expectations with speed and suppression.
-
🔵 Dodgers still the top-rated team but too expensive in the market.
LDS Monday Rap — Two Verses to Close It Out 🎤
Verse 1:
Blue Jays in the day, the metrics ignite,
Gausman was cool, Yesavage took flight.
Now Bieber’s next — what does the model show?
His rating will make you say “Baby, baby, oh!”
Verse 2:
Mariners on the road, but the data’s clear,
Three dubs on Skubal, the bats got no fear.
Brewers keep grinding, Dodgers don’t tire,
And the BaseWinner Parlay is still breathing fire.