The Wild Card is gone. Rosters are sharper. Baserunning is now baked into the model. I ran 1,000 sims with the updated ratings, and here’s what the numbers say heading into the Division Series matchups:

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies

DET @ SEA — Tigers at Mariners

Quick sims (advancement %)
SEA: 61.8% LDS | 36.8% LCS | 22.0% WS
DET: 38.2% LDS | 17.6% LCS | 8.5% WS
Tale of the Tape
Mariners: #2 starter suppression, #2 starter innings, #2 overall pitching, #4 offense, #2 fielding. Weak only in running (#20).
Tigers: #6 suppression, balanced across the board, running edge (#9).
Spotlight starters
SEA – George Kirby: 3.13 bwERA, elite command, never gives free bases.
DET – Tarik Skubal: 33.4% K rate, 2.26 bwERA, ace who can steal games.
Read: Mariners are the most complete roster in the bracket — and the sims back it up with the best World Series probability (22%). Detroit has Skubal, but Seattle’s depth tilts the series.

NYY @ TOR — Yankees at Blue Jays

Quick sims
NYY: 54.8% LDS | 26.3% LCS | 14.4% WS
TOR: 45.2% LDS | 19.3% LCS | 8.8% WS
Tale of the Tape
Yankees: #1 offense, #1 bullpen, but #25 in starter suppression.
Blue Jays: #6 suppression, offense #9, average bullpen.
Spotlight starters
TOR – Kevin Gausman: 25% K, 3.24 bwERA. Calm and consistent.
NYY – Luis Gil: 11.8% BB, 5.92 bwERA. Strikeout arm, but a walk machine.
Schedule nugget: Toronto at home in Saturday day games since 2016: 81–45 (64% win rate).
Read: Sims shade toward New York, but Toronto’s suppression edge and day-game history keep this matchup live.

CHC @ MIL — Cubs at Brewers

Quick sims
CHC: 50.0% LDS | 22.4% LCS | 9.7% WS
MIL: 50.0% LDS | 22.1% LCS | 9.7% WS
Tale of the Tape
Cubs: Starter innings #4, offense #7, running #3. Weakness: suppression (#23).
Brewers: Suppression #4, defense #3, running #1. Weakness: offense (#17).
Spotlight starters
CHC – Shota Imanaga: 19.6% K, 4.29 bwERA. Solid but hittable.
MIL – Freddy Peralta: 28.9% K, 2.99 bwERA. Market underrated, model favorite.
Read: Milwaukee doesn’t mash, but they’re elite at suppression, defense, and running — traits that travel in October. A team the market keeps sleeping on.

LAD @ PHI — Dodgers at Phillies

Quick sims
LAD: 53.4% LDS | 30.6% LCS | 15.6% WS
PHI: 46.6% LDS | 24.9% LCS | 11.4% WS
Tale of the Tape
Dodgers: #1 starter suppression, #1 overall pitching, #7 offense. Weakness: fielding (#18).
Phillies: #1 starter innings, #3 suppression, balanced defense and running.
Spotlight starters
LAD – Blake Snell: 34.2% K, 2.38 bwERA. Filthy when he’s on.
PHI – Cristopher Sánchez: 6.3 IP/GS, 2.61 bwERA. Depth arm pitching like an ace.
Read: Dodgers still lead with suppression and brand names, but Phillies’ length and balance make this closer than the market thinks.

BaseWinner Parlay — Mariners + Blue Jays (+246)

The sims:
Seattle fair price: -162
Toronto fair price: +121
Not screaming standalone value. But context matters:
Seattle: the most complete team in the bracket, highest WS win probability at 22%.
Toronto: real suppression strength + the quirky but real Saturday day-game dominance at home.
Stack them, and the +246 parlay makes sense. It’s a blend of model + intangibles the books don’t price.

Simulation vs. DraftKings World Series Odds

After running 1,000 playoff simulations, I compared the model’s championship probabilities with the current DraftKings futures board. Here’s where the sims and the market disagree:
Team Sim WS Probability DraftKings Odds Implied Market Probability Edge (Sim – Market)
Seattle Mariners 22.0% +550 15.4% +6.6%
Los Angeles Dodgers 15.6% +320 23.8% –8.2%
New York Yankees 14.4% +550 15.4% –1.0%
Philadelphia Phillies 11.4% +475 17.4% –6.0%
Chicago Cubs 9.7% +750 11.8% –2.1%
Milwaukee Brewers 9.7% +800 11.1% –1.4%
Toronto Blue Jays 8.8% +850 10.5% –1.7%
Detroit Tigers 8.5% +950 9.5% –1.0%
Takeaway:
The Mariners are the clearest edge — 22% by sim vs. 15% in the market.
Dodgers and Phillies are heavily overpriced by the books.
Yankees are basically on-market.
Brewers, Cubs, Jays, and Tigers sit in the middle without major edges.

LDS Bonus Rap — BaseWinner Mic Drop 🎤

Verse 1:
Brewers run wild, but the books don’t see,
Peralta’s carving lineups with quiet mastery.
Mariners deep and balanced, Kirby’s paint is pure,
Skubal’s nasty like a virus, but M’s bats got the cure.
Verse 2:
Buy one get one free, Gil’s walks come in a spree,
Saturday home day game and Jays a victory.
Gausman cool like ice and he keeps it in order,
Deep October baseball is staying north of the border.
Verse 3:
Dodgers bring the arms, Phillies answer with grind,
The series good to watch but no value can I find.
Mariners top the sims, World Series in view,
22% — teal and navy breaking through.