I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo sims with a two-layer approach — Wild Card–only ratings built from each club’s three-starter stack, and my standard BaseWinner ratings for the LDS, LCS, and World Series. For the Dodgers, I applied a one-round lineup bump to capture their September surge at Dodger Stadium (a 139 BaseWinner created number). After that, the model reverts to long-series strength.

BaseWinner To Win World Series Probabilities

From the sim:

• Seattle Mariners — 20.7%

• Toronto Blue Jays — 14.9%

• New York Yankees — 14.1%

• Philadelphia Phillies — 14.1%

• Chicago Cubs — 9.9%

• Los Angeles Dodgers — 8.0%

• Milwaukee Brewers — 6.0%

• Detroit Tigers — 3.9%

• San Diego Padres — 2.9%

• Boston Red Sox — 2.8%

• Cleveland Guardians — 1.5%

• Cincinnati Reds — 1.1%

DraftKings World Series Market

• Phillies +425 (implied ~19%)

• Mariners +450 (~18%)

• Dodgers +500 (~16.7%)

• Blue Jays +750 (~11.8%)

• Brewers +750 (~11.8%)

• Yankees +800 (~11.1%)

• Padres +1400 (~6.7%)

• Cubs +1500 (~6.3%)

• Tigers +1800 (~5.3%)

• Red Sox +2200 (~4.3%)

• Guardians +3000 (~3.2%)

• Reds +3500 (~2.8%)

Where the Value Sits

• Seattle Mariners +450 — model says ~21% (fair +383). ✅ Positive edge.

• Toronto Blue Jays +750 — model says ~15% (fair +571). ✅ Positive edge.

• New York Yankees +800 — model says ~14% (fair +609). ✅ Positive edge.

• Chicago Cubs +1500 — model says ~10% (fair +914). ✅ Positive edge.

Other teams are overpriced vs. the model — especially the Phillies and Dodgers, who are respected in the market but not as strong in the sims once bracket paths are accounted for.

BaseWinner Playoff Power Ratings (1–12)

This is the foundation of the sims. Each rating blends run production, prevention, and variance into a “runs-per-game” lens. Higher is better.

1. Yankees +1.226

2. Dodgers +1.140 (one-round WC bump)

3. Padres +1.027

4. Mariners +0.938

5. Cubs +0.877

6. Blue Jays +0.816

7. Red Sox +0.595

8. Phillies +0.570

9. Tigers +0.557

10. Brewers +0.430

11. Reds +0.221

12. Guardians +0.115

The power list shows why the Yankees grade out better in a long series than their market price, and why the Cubs are sneaky dangerous if they survive the Wild Card.

Sim vs. Market

The Process

1. Team ratings: Derived from BaseWinner run models (rs_per_game, ra_per_game), with adjustments for variance and opponent context.

2. Wild Card layer: Overlays each club’s three projected starters for the short series.

3. Bracket rules: WC (Bo3, higher-seed home), LDS (Bo5, 2-2-1), LCS/WS (Bo7, 2-3-2). WS home field by average wins.

4. Simulation: 10,000 bracket runs, tracking advancement by round.

5. Market comparison: Sim percentages → fair odds → overlay with DraftKings numbers.

This way, I can see not just who’s best on paper, but where pricing mismatches exist.

Final Word

The market respects Philly and LA, but my sims say the value is elsewhere. The best World Series buys right now:

• Seattle Mariners +450

• Toronto Blue Jays +750

• New York Yankees +800

• Chicago Cubs +1500

That’s the BaseWinner card for October.

👉 For deeper breakdowns of each playoff round — including matchups, bullpen edges, and daily picks — catch me on the BetUS MLB Show, live at 8 AM ET Monday through Friday on YouTube.