2015 BaseWinner Analytics
Advanced Metrics used by over 500 Successful MLB Bettors...
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WHO IS THE BASEWINNER?
Hi, my name is Mark. I am known as the ‘Basewinner’ in the industry. I am 45 years old, with a background in Economics.
I have spent about 1,500 hours+ annually for the past 10 years analyzing individual MLB games and developing predictive data sets.
Our team has used my background, a powerful software platform, mathematics, creativity and hard work to build the BaseWinner Analytics advanced MLB game prediction and player evaluation product.
Our daily summary chart will give you quick access to valuable information that will help your MLB betting and MLB Daily Fantasy pursuits.
I have been inspired by work of Bill James, David Smyth and Nate Silver. I have further developed their Runs Created and their other MLB advanced projection formulas. The summary results can help you get an edge in the daily MLB markets.
The search for objective knowledge about baseball
Our team of programmers have been crunching our databases that now contains advanced situational stats and forecasts for all 600+ projected batters and 500+ pitchers for the 2015 season. We focused on the key question relevant to baseball betting: What actionable information can we pull out of this massive data-set?
Our approach is to simplify complex sabermetrics into actionable info. Our team has devoted hundreds of hours researching to identify the best opportunities for profit.
In trading, you only need two variables in place to wind up on top: a slight statistical advantage and a long enough timeline. The confusing nature of sabermetrics in baseball creates a statistical advantage, and the long grind of a 162 game season gives us time.
Our Goal is to Project Future Performance
The primary method of doing this is to weigh key performance statistics by their predictive ability. That is, their ability to predict future performance rather than describe past ability.
At a high level, we use 3 core sabermetrics to predict future performance. The three metrics (that we have broken down further) you may be familiar with as a fan and a bettor. These are xFIP for pitching, Runs Created for batters and Defensive Runs Saved for fielding.
Our team has advanced and expanded these numbers with unique weighted calculations. The result is four of our most important and predictive metrics - Starter Adjusted Runs Allowed Runs (bwSPxERA), Relief Adjusted Runs Allowed (bwRPxERA), Adjusted Base Runs Created (bwRC) and Fielding projections (bwFLD).
We have also broken them down into the four main splits for batters - Home, Away, vs. Left, and vs. Right. These splits are essential to weigh correctly and are relevant and special to baseball betting.
Unique to BaseWinner Analytics:
- We take into account sample size and recent performance data and weigh both factors with best fit predictive measurements.
- We adjust each individual’s past stats for ballpark factors.
- For each individual batter, we norm each metric for the opponent faced talent level and league-wide performance.
- Our park factors are unique in that they account for the talent level that has played at the stadium and are also calculated for handedness.
These raw talent numbers are the weapons we take into the battlefield and grind of daily baseball handicapping. Our software uses these figures to churn out a true odds money line and total for each game.
The BaseWinner offensive projections for each team are based on the nine individual batters that comprise the projected lineup. The offensive forecast accounts for each player’s situational talent level and projected plate appearances.
For defense, the BaseWinner game model takes into account each starting pitcher’s talent level, expected batters faced and venue. We then add the bullpen rating, which is unique to each starting pitcher based on talent level metrics and expected innings pitched of the relief pitchers who are likely to pitch behind him.
We add ‘Defensive Runs Saved’ metrics for each individual player in the field to complete the Total Defensive projections for the game.
The BaseWinner Line is finalized by factoring in our unique ballpark factors (that are not available to the public) and umpire tendencies.
The BaseWinner Line
This official BaseWinner line is what you use to gain an edge on the daily Las Vegas Odds Line. For self-handicappers and professionals, this will be the foundation for your inside track to profit in MLB.
If you are looking for daily picks, we have a service for you as well. We have reviewed our past performance over the last 4 years and 4000+ monitored picks. We have a positive ROI over this time, and after reviewing for profitability, we have found areas to further improve play selection & profitability.
Our 2015 approach is simple on the surface and will be easy for you to use each day, but it is quite complex in the details.
In short, we now have several unique databases we use to further refine the officially recommended plays. Our data is robust, and our new software is able to quickly and precisely filter the relevant info to insure we are accurately identifying the strongest plays.
After extensive back testing, we are excited for a highly profitable season.
2015 BaseWinner Quest: 100% ROI Season
For those who would like to follow along, we are starting a 100% ROI journey this season. We will document all our official plays, using Kelly Criterion to identify optimal bet sizing based on bankroll and expected win percentage, with the goal of a 100% ROI season. We will post more writing about this soon. We hope you join us!
The BaseWinner ALL-Access pass this season is $379. Register before March 22 and pay only $327 (Save $50)! This gets you everything game we release and the Basewinner Line and matchup table for every day we put it out. If you are interested, sign up here.
Team are overvalued or undervalued for a variety of biased reasons and fan perceptions. BaseWinner Analytics cut straight through that.
Lets have a great 2015 season!
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